After a storm blasts California and parts of the West into the holiday weekend and begins to push eastward, the threat of severe weather, including tornadoes and flooding rain, will increase over the middle of the United States starting on Easter Sunday and continue into the first few days of April, AccuWeather meteorologists warn.
The first thunderstorms capable of producing severe weather will extend along a west-to-east boundary of warm air and cold air, including the middle of the Mississippi and Ohio valleys, on Easter Sunday. "The main threat of severe weather on Sunday will stem from significant hail," AccuWeather Meteorologist Joseph Bauer said. Hail to the size of golf balls is possible. Smaller hail could cover the ground in some areas.
Easter's damaging hail threat zone will extend from southern Iowa and northern Missouri to central and southern Ohio, part of West Virginia and into the southwestern corner of Pennsylvania. This region will remain an active spot for heavy to locally severe thunderstorms into early next week. However, the main threat of severe weather will ramp up farther to the southwest over the Plains and the middle to lower part of the Mississippi Valley before pressing eastward.
On Monday, the main risk of severe thunderstorms is likely to extend from eastern Kansas to central Oklahoma and central Texas and expand to portions of northeastern Texas, much of Arkansas and Missouri before reaching parts of northern Louisiana, southern Illinois, southern Indiana, western Kentucky, western Tennessee and northwestern Mississippi by Monday night. "All modes of severe weather are possible on Monday -- ranging from high winds and hail to flash flooding and tornadoes," AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said.
Should the severe weather evolve to its full potential, there could be a significant outbreak that involves multiple strong tornadoes. "Some of the factors favoring the eruption of severe weather on Monday include a surge of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and stiff winds in the lower part of the atmosphere," Rayno explained, "Warm air will already be in place."
There is a chance that cloud cover could limit the amount of severe thunderstorms or take the edge off some of the violent conditions. If much of the region ends up cloud-free or the clouds break early in the day, the situation could evolve into a significant severe weather outbreak.
On Tuesday, the threat of severe thunderstorms will shift eastward and extend from northeastern Louisiana to southern Ohio, southwestern Pennsylvania and western Maryland. This threat of severe weather includes the central part of Alabama and the Atlanta metro area. There is the potential for severe weather to extend to part of the mid-Atlantic coast, including the Washington, D.C., and Baltimore metro areas.
It is possible that severe weather could extend to part of the Eastern Seaboard on Wednesday. "Near and north of the primary severe weather zone, a swath of heavy rain will extend from parts of Missouri, Illinois and Indiana from Sunday to Monday before expanding to parts of Ohio and West Virginia from Monday to Tuesday," Bauer explained.
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