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Administrator- Joined
- May 11, 2013
- Posts
- 24,890
- Reaction score
- 13,614
- Points
- 2,755
- Location
- Morganton, N.C.
- Website
- conversations-ii.freeforums.net
...I want to know what the hell Greenburg's smoking....seriously.
(The Guardian) Democrats in deep trouble on crime messaging, veteran pollster argues
It’s clear that the spike in voter support Democrats experienced over the summer has worn off in the final weeks before the midterms, raising the possibility of a disastrous Tuesday for the party as it tries to defend its slim hold on both chambers of Congress.
Longtime Democratic strategist Stanley B. Greenberg has published an explanation of one reason why Democrats failed to keep their momentum: their own voters lost faith in their ability to tackle crime.
Writing in The American Prospect, Greenberg argues that Republicans effectively used increasing fears of violence nationwide to tar Democrats as soft on the issue, and the strategy was so potent even some racial groups that traditionally vote for Joe Biden’s allies saw the GOP as better able to tackle the problem.
Greenberg based his conclusions on a polling effort he oversaw: New York City has seen citywide shooting incidents increase by 13 percent compared to July 2021, and the number of murders increased for the month by 34 percent compared to this time last year. Philadelphia and Chicago experienced prominent shoot-outs on the subway, and in Philadelphia overall shootings have increased by 3 percent and violent crimes are up 7 percent.
As a result, crime was a top-tier issue in the midterm election, and that included Blacks, who ranked it almost as high as the cost of living in poll after poll. For Hispanics and Asian Americans, crime came just below the cost of living as a priority. And Republicans continued to remind voters that Democrats continued to support “defunding the police,” even by linking candidates to organizations they took money from, like Planned Parenthood, which back in 2020 called for defunding.
The Democrats had so little credibility on crime that any message I tested this year against the Republicans ended up losing us votes, even messages that voters previously liked.
The only message that worked with voters was one in which Democrats promised to greatly expand police forces and publicly called out members seen as not doing enough to fight crime, Greenberg writes. He adds that it’s a far cry from much of the party’s messaging since the racial justice protests that began in the summer of 2020, after which many Democrats focused more on police abuses than on communities’ fears of violence: In a mid-October poll, I was able to test a crime message that got heard. It got heard because it dramatized more police, said Democrats heard our communities on violent crime, and also called out the small minority of Democrats who failed to address violent crime, and said, “Democrats in Congress are mainstream” and support our “first responders.”
To be honest, I didn’t want to open up this debate during the campaign when Democrats could do little to address it. That is why I am writing this article now, being published right before the election.
Our effective crime message began with respect for police, but this time, the Democrat proposes to add 100,000 more police. That is a pretty dramatic offer that says, my crime plan begins with many more police. The message includes the same urgent reforms, but also adds, “those very communities want us to get behind law enforcement” and “fight violent crime as a top priority.”
This crime message defeats by 11 points a Republican crime message that hits Democrats for defunding the police, being with Biden who is soft on crime, and presiding over Democratic cities with record homicide rates. Democrats are in so much trouble on crime, yet this message wins dramatically in the base and competes with working-class targets.
(The Guardian) Democrats in deep trouble on crime messaging, veteran pollster argues
It’s clear that the spike in voter support Democrats experienced over the summer has worn off in the final weeks before the midterms, raising the possibility of a disastrous Tuesday for the party as it tries to defend its slim hold on both chambers of Congress.
Longtime Democratic strategist Stanley B. Greenberg has published an explanation of one reason why Democrats failed to keep their momentum: their own voters lost faith in their ability to tackle crime.
Writing in The American Prospect, Greenberg argues that Republicans effectively used increasing fears of violence nationwide to tar Democrats as soft on the issue, and the strategy was so potent even some racial groups that traditionally vote for Joe Biden’s allies saw the GOP as better able to tackle the problem.
Greenberg based his conclusions on a polling effort he oversaw: New York City has seen citywide shooting incidents increase by 13 percent compared to July 2021, and the number of murders increased for the month by 34 percent compared to this time last year. Philadelphia and Chicago experienced prominent shoot-outs on the subway, and in Philadelphia overall shootings have increased by 3 percent and violent crimes are up 7 percent.
As a result, crime was a top-tier issue in the midterm election, and that included Blacks, who ranked it almost as high as the cost of living in poll after poll. For Hispanics and Asian Americans, crime came just below the cost of living as a priority. And Republicans continued to remind voters that Democrats continued to support “defunding the police,” even by linking candidates to organizations they took money from, like Planned Parenthood, which back in 2020 called for defunding.
The Democrats had so little credibility on crime that any message I tested this year against the Republicans ended up losing us votes, even messages that voters previously liked.
The only message that worked with voters was one in which Democrats promised to greatly expand police forces and publicly called out members seen as not doing enough to fight crime, Greenberg writes. He adds that it’s a far cry from much of the party’s messaging since the racial justice protests that began in the summer of 2020, after which many Democrats focused more on police abuses than on communities’ fears of violence: In a mid-October poll, I was able to test a crime message that got heard. It got heard because it dramatized more police, said Democrats heard our communities on violent crime, and also called out the small minority of Democrats who failed to address violent crime, and said, “Democrats in Congress are mainstream” and support our “first responders.”
To be honest, I didn’t want to open up this debate during the campaign when Democrats could do little to address it. That is why I am writing this article now, being published right before the election.
Our effective crime message began with respect for police, but this time, the Democrat proposes to add 100,000 more police. That is a pretty dramatic offer that says, my crime plan begins with many more police. The message includes the same urgent reforms, but also adds, “those very communities want us to get behind law enforcement” and “fight violent crime as a top priority.”
This crime message defeats by 11 points a Republican crime message that hits Democrats for defunding the police, being with Biden who is soft on crime, and presiding over Democratic cities with record homicide rates. Democrats are in so much trouble on crime, yet this message wins dramatically in the base and competes with working-class targets.
