What is the future of urban mobility? By 2050 there could be 2.5bn cars roaming the planet and most of them will be concentrated in cities, the OECD has reported. Saudi Arabia, one of the world's top oil exporters, expects domestic consumption to exceed exports by that year purely to feed its internal needs for automotive fuel. Meanwhile, if Chinese levels of automobile ownership reach US levels (840 cars per 1,000 people), demand for oil in China alone will surpass present-day global oil production, management consultants McKinsey have reported. And climate scientists predict irreversible environmental damage with continued carbon emissions if we follow this "business as usual" attitude. But, we no longer need to rely on predictions to understand the magnitude of this future, we can simply need to visit Beijing to realise that, as science fiction author William Gibson said, "the future is already here – it's just not very evenly distributed".
Beijing, a city with more than 20 million people, typifies the type of rapid urban densification the world is experiencing, particularly in the developing world. Plans by the Chinese government, reported by the New York Times, call for the movement of 250 million rural farmers into cities over the next 12-15 years. This shift from an agrarian society to an urbanised one has caused the cities to swell to the point where daily commutes are up to two hours for every resident. In January of this year, the particulate matter (PM) levels in Beijing, a measure of air pollution, exceeded 2.5 million, similar to one of the US's worst wildfires. Nearly a quarter of these toxic fumes can be directly attributed to carbon emissions from transportation. Yet, despite these unbearable conditions the allure of the private automobile is still captivating, aspirational, and a symbol of status.
