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How the Iran War Could Reshape the Aviation Industry

Matthew-NC

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(BBC News) How the prolonged Middle East conflict could reshape how we fly
Dubai has become one of the key pillars of the aviation industry. Its airport - Dubai International Airport (DBX) - is the busiest in the world for international travellers, far outstripping London Heathrow. In 2024, more than 92 million passengers made their way through its gleaming, marble-floored halls.

Under normal circumstances, the three Gulf airports - including Abu Dhabi and Qatari capital, Doha – together handle more than 3,000 flights every day, with the majority of them operated by local carriers, Emirates, Etihad and Qatar Airways.

But since the conflict in the Middle East, aircraft at these major hub airports have been grounded in some instances, leaving hundreds of thousands of passengers stranded.

As the bombardments continue, air traffic in the region remains heavily disputed. But there is also the issue of fuel. Since Iran effectively blocked the Strait of Hormuz, supplies from oil refineries in the Gulf have been choked off.

The region normally accounts for about half of Europe's jet fuel imports, and fears of scarcity have caused prices to double since the start of the conflict. Some carriers have already begun cutting flights in response. According to analysts at Cirium, more than 30,000 services to the Middle East have been cancelled since the start of the conflict.

What this means in the long-term for the hugely successful "Gulf model" of aviation - widely credited with transforming long-distance travel and making it cheaper - could be really damaging, experts say. If the conflict drags on, more passengers will find alternative routes to fly, which will inevitably drive prices up, experts say.

 
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