(AccuWeather) Two storms are poised to bring severe weather over portions of the south-central United States this week, but it is the second storm that may bring a heightened risk of dangerous thunderstorms, including the threat of a few tornadoes, AccuWeather meteorologists warn.
Factoring in the multiple rounds and areal coverage of upcoming severe weather this week, more than 40 million people may be at risk. Some of the same locations that have been hit repeatedly by severe weather, including the threat of tornadoes, so far this winter may get hit again this week. "The first and weaker of the storm duo will pivot quickly from southern Colorado to northern Michigan spanning through Tuesday," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Courtney Travis said.
On the storm’s northern and western edge, enough cold air will be in place for accumulating snowfall, which will lead to slippery travel early in the week. Farther south and east, a broad area of showers and thunderstorms will erupt. There is potential for a squall line that may extend from north-central Texas to Oklahoma and southeastern Kansas on Monday night, AccuWeather forecasters say. Major cities that could be affected by thunderstorms for a time late Monday night include Dallas and Oklahoma City. The storms are likely to shift east of both metro areas by the bulk of the Tuesday morning drive.
On Tuesday, the likelihood of heavy gusty thunderstorms will shift eastward from northeastern Texas to southern Missouri with the likelihood of locally frisky storms in northeastern Louisiana, western Mississippi and southwestern Tennessee Tuesday evening. Major cities in the path of the storms on Tuesday afternoon include Little Rock, Arkansas, and Springfield, Missouri.
Even though many of the storms into Tuesday evening may fall below severe levels, but can still be problematic. The main threats from the storms will be strong wind gusts that could knock down trees and torrential downpours that could lead to flash flooding, forecasters say.
It is possible that some storms in eastern Kansas and western Missouri, including around the Kansas City, Missouri, metro area could become severe during Tuesday afternoon and evening. These storms may pose a higher risk of damaging winds and hail. "A stronger storm system will pivot from northwestern Texas on Wednesday to northern Michigan on Thursday night," Travis said. Because the first storm will have already left behind some warm and moist Gulf of Mexico air over the South Central states, the new storm is likely to take advantage and may lead to an explosion of severe weather on Wednesday and Thursday as strong jet stream energy sweeps over the region.
"Given the scope of unseasonable warmth in areas in advance of this storm, it will act more like an April storm rather than a February storm," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Adam Douty said. "The severe weather threat can extend much farther to the north than typically occurs during the middle of February, potentially affecting northern portions of Indiana and Ohio, as well as western Pennsylvania."
The full spectrum of severe weather is likely from Wednesday to Thursday, ranging from storms with high winds and hail to flash flooding and a few tornadoes, Travis said. Some could be on the ground for more than a couple of minutes. The threat includes the potential for tornadoes at night.
Severe thunderstorms will ramp up at midday on Wednesday from northeastern Texas to southern Missouri and expand eastward to western portions of Mississippi and Tennessee into the evening hours. Once again cities that could be at a heightened risk of severe weather on Wednesday include Longview, Texas, Shreveport, Louisiana, and Little Rock.
On Thursday, the risk of violent thunderstorms and tornadoes will shift eastward with a heightened risk in the states of Mississippi and Alabama -- a zone where there have been dozens of tornadoes so far this winter. The severe weather threat on Thursday either from tornadoes or strong wind gusts will extend along a 900-mile-long swath from near the central Gulf coast to around the lower Great Lakes region.
