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(The Guardian) Despite months of campaigning, Trump leads Biden in five key swing states, new poll shows
The Biden campaign woke up to some disquieting news this morning, when a major poll was released showing that Donald Trump still leads Joe Biden in five of the six swing states that will be crucial to deciding the November election. Perhaps the most concerning part about the poll from the New York Times, Siena College and the Philadelphia Inquirer was that while it was news, it was not exactly new – surveys have for months found the president trailing his predecessor in states he carried four years ago. What’s notable about this one is that the presidential campaign is now well underway, with Biden campaigning across the country in recent weeks, and his allies spending millions on advertisements intended to rebuild the coalition that elected him to the White House in 2020. Yet despite all that effort, the poll does not show much of an increase in his support.
Perhaps more worrying for Biden’s prospects is what the survey says about the voting groups that are turning against him. While Black voters have been a reliable Democratic voting bloc, Trump’s support among them is 20%, the highest for a Republican presidential candidate in decades. The two men are also tied in support among Hispanic voters and 18-29-year-olds, groups that Biden won majorities of in 2020.
Gaza war, desires for change in America weigh on Biden, poll finds
The New York Times, Siena College and the Philadelphia Inquirer poll released today found that one of the reasons why Joe Biden is lagging in support among groups who backed him in 2020 is his handling of Israel’s invasion of Gaza. The survey also found a more surprising explanation for why many voters do not want another four years of Biden: a desire for change in the United States – which they do not believe the president can bring.
Biden’s handling of the conflict in Gaza, or his foreign policy more broadly, was the reason cited by 13% of those who voted for him in 2020 but do not plan to do so again this year, the poll found. Of that group, only 17% called themselves sympathetic to Israel. That finding underscores the tensions among Democrats and their supporters over the president’s approach to the war, amid concerns of excessive civilian deaths.
The poll also found a substantial desire for change in the country, and a belief that Donald Trump was more likely to deliver it. A majority of respondents backed making changes in America, with 14% saying the system needs “to be torn down entirely”, and 55% backing “major changes”. Trump would bring more change the survey finds, although voters are split over whether that would be good or bad. But unlike Biden’s detractors over Gaza, these voters are moderate or conservative leaning, underscoring the breadth of the groups the president may have to win back to triumph in November.
The Biden campaign woke up to some disquieting news this morning, when a major poll was released showing that Donald Trump still leads Joe Biden in five of the six swing states that will be crucial to deciding the November election. Perhaps the most concerning part about the poll from the New York Times, Siena College and the Philadelphia Inquirer was that while it was news, it was not exactly new – surveys have for months found the president trailing his predecessor in states he carried four years ago. What’s notable about this one is that the presidential campaign is now well underway, with Biden campaigning across the country in recent weeks, and his allies spending millions on advertisements intended to rebuild the coalition that elected him to the White House in 2020. Yet despite all that effort, the poll does not show much of an increase in his support.
Perhaps more worrying for Biden’s prospects is what the survey says about the voting groups that are turning against him. While Black voters have been a reliable Democratic voting bloc, Trump’s support among them is 20%, the highest for a Republican presidential candidate in decades. The two men are also tied in support among Hispanic voters and 18-29-year-olds, groups that Biden won majorities of in 2020.
Gaza war, desires for change in America weigh on Biden, poll finds
The New York Times, Siena College and the Philadelphia Inquirer poll released today found that one of the reasons why Joe Biden is lagging in support among groups who backed him in 2020 is his handling of Israel’s invasion of Gaza. The survey also found a more surprising explanation for why many voters do not want another four years of Biden: a desire for change in the United States – which they do not believe the president can bring.
Biden’s handling of the conflict in Gaza, or his foreign policy more broadly, was the reason cited by 13% of those who voted for him in 2020 but do not plan to do so again this year, the poll found. Of that group, only 17% called themselves sympathetic to Israel. That finding underscores the tensions among Democrats and their supporters over the president’s approach to the war, amid concerns of excessive civilian deaths.
The poll also found a substantial desire for change in the country, and a belief that Donald Trump was more likely to deliver it. A majority of respondents backed making changes in America, with 14% saying the system needs “to be torn down entirely”, and 55% backing “major changes”. Trump would bring more change the survey finds, although voters are split over whether that would be good or bad. But unlike Biden’s detractors over Gaza, these voters are moderate or conservative leaning, underscoring the breadth of the groups the president may have to win back to triumph in November.
