The more and more polling I see as the midterms approach the worser & worser the night will be for Democrats; I believe the House will go to the Republicans (15-20 seats is my best estimate) but I think the Republicans will also recapture the Senate and rebuild their would-be "generational majority" from back in 2014 and 2016....
....the end result, if I had to lay down a marker (and I fervently pray I'm wrong here) but the Senate will go 54-46 for the GOP, effectively killing anything Joe Biden wants to do through 2024. But a closer look reveals the potential bloodbath to come...
(1) Republicans keep Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida and Wisconsin (wins for Mehmet Oz, J.D. Vance, Marco Rubio & Ron Johnson), effectively sealing all but Pennsylvania to the GOP for the near-future (OH & FL are red bastions to begin with; the last time a Democrat won in either state was Sherrod Brown in 2018) and WI is headed that way. PA is still purple but without Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, it would end up about as red as Texas is at present.
(2) Republicans keep North Carolina; although my home state is, like the Keystone State, technically a purple (read: swing) state, Democrats have won Senate elections since 1972 a grand total of four times (Bob Morgan in 1974, Terry Sanford in 1986, John Edwards in 2004 and Kay Hagan in 2008) and none served for more than a term in office. By contrast, Republicans have served long periods in the Senate (Jesse Helms from 1972-2002, Richard Burr from 2004-2022 and Thom Tillis through, at present, 2026).
(3) Republicans, however, will flip a couple seats (these are the ones with candidates who, Laxalt notwithstanding, should they win, would kinda prompt me to consider, for a moment, driving my Dodge Dakota right into the nearest power pole in abject despair)....
--New Hampshire: Donald Bolduc unseats Maggie Hassan (current RCP aggregate has Bolduc up by 0.3%)
--Georgia: Herschel Walker unseats Raphael Warnock (current RCP aggregate has Walker up 0.5%)
--Arizona: Blake Masters unseats Mark Kelly (current RCP aggregate has Kelly up by 2 points; however, Kelly has never broke past 50% in a single poll this campaign season and Masters is close enough to run the table w/undecided voters
--Nevada: Adam Laxalt unseats Catherine Cortez-Masto (current RCP aggregate has Laxalt up by 1.9%, has broken 50% in polling twice this month and kept a small but consistent lead over Cortez-Masto throughout the campaign)
Will I be sad if the results above come true? Yes, I will.
Will it stop me from continuing to fight for this great republic called America? No, it wont.
....the end result, if I had to lay down a marker (and I fervently pray I'm wrong here) but the Senate will go 54-46 for the GOP, effectively killing anything Joe Biden wants to do through 2024. But a closer look reveals the potential bloodbath to come...
(1) Republicans keep Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida and Wisconsin (wins for Mehmet Oz, J.D. Vance, Marco Rubio & Ron Johnson), effectively sealing all but Pennsylvania to the GOP for the near-future (OH & FL are red bastions to begin with; the last time a Democrat won in either state was Sherrod Brown in 2018) and WI is headed that way. PA is still purple but without Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, it would end up about as red as Texas is at present.
(2) Republicans keep North Carolina; although my home state is, like the Keystone State, technically a purple (read: swing) state, Democrats have won Senate elections since 1972 a grand total of four times (Bob Morgan in 1974, Terry Sanford in 1986, John Edwards in 2004 and Kay Hagan in 2008) and none served for more than a term in office. By contrast, Republicans have served long periods in the Senate (Jesse Helms from 1972-2002, Richard Burr from 2004-2022 and Thom Tillis through, at present, 2026).
(3) Republicans, however, will flip a couple seats (these are the ones with candidates who, Laxalt notwithstanding, should they win, would kinda prompt me to consider, for a moment, driving my Dodge Dakota right into the nearest power pole in abject despair)....
--New Hampshire: Donald Bolduc unseats Maggie Hassan (current RCP aggregate has Bolduc up by 0.3%)
--Georgia: Herschel Walker unseats Raphael Warnock (current RCP aggregate has Walker up 0.5%)
--Arizona: Blake Masters unseats Mark Kelly (current RCP aggregate has Kelly up by 2 points; however, Kelly has never broke past 50% in a single poll this campaign season and Masters is close enough to run the table w/undecided voters
--Nevada: Adam Laxalt unseats Catherine Cortez-Masto (current RCP aggregate has Laxalt up by 1.9%, has broken 50% in polling twice this month and kept a small but consistent lead over Cortez-Masto throughout the campaign)
Will I be sad if the results above come true? Yes, I will.
Will it stop me from continuing to fight for this great republic called America? No, it wont.
