Democrats Shellacked In 2014 Midterms

[Webster]

....a wave election it was toinight....unfortunately, for Democrats, it was a tsunami:

With few exceptions, 2014 turned out to be the worst possible scenario for Democrats. The Senate is not only back in the hands of Republicans, but with a margin of seats over Democrats that only the most optimistic scenarios envisioned. Governorships that Democrats expected to wrest from Republicans proved out of their reach, but worse yet they stunningly lost gubernatorial races in solidly blue states.

Heading into Election Day, everybody seemed to agree that Republicans had the edge, but it could go either way. Democrats had a plausible if unlikely path to Senate victory, and a promised silver lining in red state governor races. But at midnight on Wednesday, that conventional wisdom looks almost laughably dated. Republicans won almost every meaningful race and, even in a few where they lost, they made Democrats sweat more than anyone expected.

Ousting Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Corbett (R) and avoiding what would have been an unbelievable upset of Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) are about the only small morsels that Democrats can hold onto. Otherwise, the map couldn't have been any worse for Democrats -- or better for Republicans.

SENATE
Arkansas -- Democratic Sen. Mary Pryor looks to be heading to a double-digit loss to Rep. Tom Cotton.

Colorado -- Democratic Sen. Mark Udall was supposed to have a winning strategy to emulate, working off the playbook that propelled to Sen. Michael Bennet to an unexpected 2010 win and Democrats were exporting to other states. But Republican Cory Gardner beat Udall handily.

Georgia -- One possible bright spot for Democrats was Michelle Nunn beating David Perdue to steal a Republican seat. But rather than even force a runoff in January by keeping Perdue under 50 percent, Nunn lost fairly easily.

Kentucky -- No bigger prize than toppling Republican Senate Leader Mitch McConnell. Democrats also had a top recruit in Alison Lundergan Grimes and spent a lot of money to beat McConnell. But he triumphed handily.

Iowa -- Like Colorado, a lightly blue state with a purportedly strong Democratic ground game -- and Republican Joni Ernst cruised to a win over Bruce Braley.

North Carolina -- Of all the toss-up races, Democrats seemed to be feeling the best about North Carolina and Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan. But Republican Thom Tillis won out in a state that went for Obama in 2008.

Virginia -- Nobody saw a close race here. Republican candidate Ed Gillespie pulled spending for his own campaign briefly in the final weeks of the campaign. But Democratic Sen. Mark Warner barely managed to eke out a win in a race that had observers in disbelief for most of the night.

GOVERNORS
Florida -- Polling showed the race neck-and-neck, and Democrats were gleeful at the prospect of knocking off Rick Scott. In the end, he edged out a win over Democratic candidate and former Republican governor Charlie Crist.

Illinois -- Few more reliably Democratic states than Illinois. But unpopular Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn fell to Republican Bruce Rauner.

Kansas -- Ultra-conservative Gov. Sam Brownback was a favorite target for Democrats and they had a good candidate in state Sen. Paul Davis, who was polling well. But in the end, Kansas's red tint won out.

Maryland -- Like Illinois, a Democratic stalwart flips to Republican, with Democrat Anthony Brown losing to Republican Larry Hogan.

Massachusetts -- The Illinois and Maryland recipe here, too. Democratic Martha Coakley loses a statewide race -- again -- this time to Republican Charlie Baker.

Wisconsin -- Even more than Brownback or Scott, Walker -- a presumed 2016 presidential aspirant -- would have been a prize for Democrats. Mary Burke, at times, looked primed to give him a run for his money. But on Election Night, the outcome was never in doubt: Walker wins.

Vermont -- This race had attracted attention only for the beards of some of its more obscure candidates. But Democratic Gov. Pat Shumlin, chair of the Democratic Governors Association, couldn't earn enough votes to win the seat outright. Instead, the decision will go to the state legislature.(Talking Points Memo)

Thoughts?

 

[WHO IS SERAFIN]

And it is still not over. But Will they actually do anything now that conservatives and republicans have been demanding for many years. If not I hope it is just pure gridlock because getting nothing done is second best, so more damage is not happening.

The Governors did pretty good also. Rick Scott pulled out a win in my state. And I really like hearing the speeches where the states governors are talking more like independent countries and making the federal government out to be the evil entity they are.

 

[Webster]

And it is still not over. But Will they actually do anything now that conservatives and republicans have been demanding for many years. If not I hope it is just pure gridlock because getting nothing done is second best, so more damage is not happening.

The Governors did pretty good also. Rick Scott pulled out a win in my state. And I really like hearing the speeches where the states governors are talking more like independent countries and making the federal government out to be the evil entity they are.

I said this over in the Election 2014 thread, but don't be surprised if the long knives - rhetorically speaking - start coming out for leaders of the DNC, the D-triple-C and the DSCC because those people do not know what the fuck - excuse my language there - they're doing.

What's even scarier, Liberty, for those of us on the Democratic side of the aisle...well, there's a couple things. First, I'm still shocked at how many Senate Dems' were defeated tonight; by my count alone, I think it was at least 7 or 8, maybe 9 in total. (I say nine because although LA is headed for a runoff, Mary Landrieu is toast down there; based on tonight's totals, the GOP got around 55-56% to her 42%.) If Mitch McConnell's smart - and I've never said wasn't - he'll figure out a way to balance the desires of those who wish to completely take us off-the-rails and the desires of those who actually want to get things done; I suspect this means pragmatic, incremental victories that roll back much of Obama's achievements.

On the House side....250 seats is the estimate atm; that's a generational majority, Liberty, for y'all. What I mean by that is, even if the Dems' win in 2016 as they did in 2012 at the top of the ticket, there ain't a coattail big enough to retake the House anytime soon. Worse, that big a majority suggests that the GOP took some state legislatures, which means they now control the keys to the redistricting kingdom even more than they did in 2010....control redistricting, you control the House...period, full stop.

Back in 2012, Liberty, a lot of us on the Left joked about the GOP's post-campaign autopsy of how they lost....decades from now, political scientists will look back at the Obama Administration and ask - apologies again for the language - "how the fuck do you lose two successive midterms in this manner?"

...and don't even get me started on the governors' races across the country; we'll be here all night if I start ranting about some of those races (in particular, Massachusetts & Maryland...)

 

[WHO IS SERAFIN]

And it is still not over. But Will they actually do anything now that conservatives and republicans have been demanding for many years. If not I hope it is just pure gridlock because getting nothing done is second best, so more damage is not happening.

The Governors did pretty good also. Rick Scott pulled out a win in my state. And I really like hearing the speeches where the states governors are talking more like independent countries and making the federal government out to be the evil entity they are.

I said this over in the Election 2014 thread, but don't be surprised if the long knives - rhetorically speaking - start coming out for leaders of the DNC, the D-triple-C and the DSCC because those people do not know what the fuck - excuse my language there - they're doing.

What's even scarier, Liberty, for those of us on the Democratic side of the aisle...well, there's a couple things. First, I'm still shocked at how many Senate Dems' were defeated tonight; by my count alone, I think it was at least 7 or 8, maybe 9 in total. (I say nine because although LA is headed for a runoff, Mary Landrieu is toast down there; based on tonight's totals, the GOP got around 55-56% to her 42%.) If Mitch McConnell's smart - and I've never said wasn't - he'll figure out a way to balance the desires of those who wish to completely take us off-the-rails and the desires of those who actually want to get things done; I suspect this means pragmatic, incremental victories that roll back much of Obama's achievements.

On the House side....250 seats is the estimate atm; that's a generational majority, Liberty, for y'all. What I mean by that is, even if the Dems' win in 2016 as they did in 2012 at the top of the ticket, there ain't a coattail big enough to retake the House anytime soon. Worse, that big a majority suggests that the GOP took some state legislatures, which means they now control the keys to the redistricting kingdom even more than they did in 2010....control redistricting, you control the House...period, full stop.

Back in 2012, Liberty, a lot of us on the Left joked about the GOP's post-campaign autopsy of how they lost....decades from now, political scientists will look back at the Obama Administration and ask - apologies again for the language - "how the fuck do you lose two successive midterms in this manner?"

...and don't even get me started on the governors' races across the country; we'll be here all night if I start ranting about some of those races (in particular, Massachusetts & Maryland...)

So what you are saying is I should be jumping for joy. But I am just moderately happy because I don't see the these republicans doing much.

 

[Webster]

Let me add something else, Liberty: every Republican considering a run for President in 2016 just got a big-ass boost...even if, as I've often said, the GOP primary field consists of a huge clown car at present.

 

[Webster]

So what you are saying is I should be jumping for joy. But I am just moderately happy because I don't see the these republicans doing much.

Take it however you want; that was as close of an accurate analysis as I've seen anywhere.tonight.

 

[Webster]

....looks like the long knives are already being gotten out in Washington:
Excerpt...

Democrats knew they were in trouble on election night Tuesday when a Virginia Senate seat that was expected to be a blowout victory began to come in much closer than expected.

"When you're cheering for an eke-out win in Virginia, not going to be a good night," one Democratic strategist told Business Insider.

Another Democratic insider summed up their impression of the evening's results in a rather blunt text.

"Fucking. Bloodbath," they wrote.

In almost every sense, the midterm elections were a disaster for the Democratic Party. They lost their majority in the US Senate, and the final results were shaping up to be close to the worst-case scenario for Democrats in which Republicans would swing eight or nine seats.

In addition to the Senate majority, Democrats were badly beaten further down the ballot. They lost key gubernatorial battles — some in strongholds and others in key targets for pickups. And they were further walloped in the House of Representatives, where Republicans are now on track to have the party's largest majority since 1928 for the final two years of President Barack Obama's term.

Republicans were gleeful.

"Feel like we're surfing at the moment," one Republican official told Business Insider, playing off the theme of a GOP "wave" election.

Democrats who spoke to us also described the results in nautical terms, but they saw it as a natural disaster rather than a day at the beach.

"No one expected the tsunami in 2004," a Democratic operative said.

The operative pointed to the fact election forecaster Nate Silver's model initially didn't make dire predictions for Democrats as evidence "there was literally no indication of this."

"Look at Nate Silver's stuff. Not that he's a god, but he aggregates all the polls," said the operative. "I'm honestly in shock."

The Democratic insider who described election night as a "bloodbath" also used the tidal wave metaphor — and they laid blame for the wipeout squarely at Obama's feet.

"This is a tsunami. Heads will roll at 1600. And if they don't, shame," the insider said, adding, "The president has 60 days to clean house, regrow his spine and lay out an aggressive, centrist agenda. If he fails at any of those, he might as well just start writing his memoir."

A national Democratic operative from the liberal wing of the party echoed the idea Obama was personally to blame for the party's losses Tuesday night. They also slammed any of their colleagues who might try to defend the president.

"Democratic operatives who refuse to acknowledge this is the White House's fault are out of their fucking minds," the operative. "These operatives who don't understand that the White House fucked up are the same hacks who overcharge House and Senate candidates for shitty consulting work and help lose elections year after year."(Business Insider)

....and people thought after 2012 that Pres. Obama was a lame-duck? If I'm reading the last few paragraphs there above correctly, Barack Obama just got thrown under the bus, then they picked up from under the bus...and threw him back under the bus, making sure to drive over him slowly as they did...

 

[DrLeftover]

Obama personally campaigned for Quinn, who lost a fairly close one, and for his friend Brown in Maryland who got beaten stupid by a corrupt old hack who'd sell his own mother out for a five dollar campaign donation.

So, yeah, it was a statement on Mister Obama.