The 2022 Mid-Term Elections Thread

[Webster]

(The Guardian) Democrats have grown increasingly upbeat about their prospects in the upcoming midterms, pointing to the outrage over the end of nationwide abortion rights, declining gas prices and the passage of major pieces of legislation intended to help Americans.

Indeed, polls in recent battleground states have shown Democratic Senate candidates ahead of their Republicans challengers, including in closely divided races such as those in Wisconsin, Nevada and Georgia.

But what if it was all a mirage? Polls in recent presidential races have been far off the mark in crucial states, and in 2020, overestimated Democrats strength among voters. The New York Times today published an analysis that takes into account these polling errors, and applies them to the latest surveys coming out in battleground Senate races across the country. The analysis finds that Democratic candidates may be far weaker than they appear in states like Nevada and Georgia, and actually running behind Republicans in North Carolina, Ohio and Wisconsin.

If the data is correct, here is what the Times says it would mean for Democrats’ quest to maintain control of the Senate: The apparent Democratic edge in Senate races in Wisconsin, North Carolina and Ohio would evaporate. To take the chamber, Republicans would need any two of Georgia, Arizona, Nevada or Pennsylvania. With Democrats today well ahead in Pennsylvania and Arizona, the fight for control of the chamber would come down to very close races in Nevada and Georgia.

Regardless of who was favored, the race for Senate control would be extremely competitive. Republican control of the House would seem to be a foregone conclusion.

 

[Webster]

And the Right thinks carpetbagger Mehmet Oz is better? Yeah, right!

 

[Vaeve]

I legit can't tell who's gonna win, both Dems and Reps seem to be hell bent on fucking everything up. It's like a competition of who you hate less.

 

[Bluezone777]

The thing about the senate and the house as what you are really deciding is which party controls the house and senate. The Senate and House tend to vote for whatever position their party is pushing regardless of anything else in most cases. The question put before voters is do you want the Democrats to continue controlling the house and the senate, have Republicans take control or give control to neither by way of splitting the vote down the middle where a single swing or rebel congressman or senator can hijack control of the vote.

The dem and Repub voters will vote their party no matter how good or shit they think their candidate is which leaves you with the independents who don't behold themselves to any one party and those usually are the ones that decide elections.

I would put forth the question of what reasons would you give for either leaving dems in power or handing it over to the Repubs? This is the question the independent voter is asking and how would you answer it?

 

[Webster]

(The Guardian) Back to the polls, Monmouth University has a new one on Georgia’s governorship race that shows Democratic challenger Stacy Abrams with a narrower path to victory but more dedicated support base than the Republican incumbent Brian Kemp as she again challenges him for the job.

The race is among the more high-profile gubernatorial contests to be decided in the 8 November midterms, and could make Abrams Georgia’s first Black and first female governor if elected. Kemp, meanwhile, is known for resisting Donald Trump’s efforts to overturn the results of Joe Biden’s election win there in 2020, though has backed a strict voting law.

According to Monmouth, 34% will definitely and 15% will probably back Kemp, against Abrams’ slightly worse 33% definite support and 12% probable support. Kemp is also viewed more favorably at 54%, versus Abrams’s 48% favorability.

However, Democrats are more fired up for Abrams than Republicans are for Kemp. Monmouth finds that 83% of Democrats will definitely vote for Abrams versus 73% of GOP voters for Kemp – perhaps a consequence of his clashes with Trump.

“Some election conspiracists may still hold a grudge against Kemp for not stepping in to overturn the 2020 result, but it’s unlikely to cost him much support. They may not be enthusiastic, but they’ll still vote for him over Abrams,” Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute, said.

 

[Webster]

...and this guy wants to be North Carolina's next senator? WTF?

 

[Webster]

(The Guardian) If the battle for control of the US Senate overall is on a knife edge in these midterm elections, certain states’ races are on a razor’s edge.

The congressional upper chamber has been split 50-50 since the 2020 presidential election, with Democrats only maintaining the upper hand because they have the White House and therefore the vice president, who also serves as president of the senate, has the deciding vote. Even then, when most legislation needs 60 votes to pass the senate and, in cases when 51 votes will do losing just one democratic senator sinks a bill, progress for the Democrats on 2020 election promises has been difficult.

But struggles notwithstanding, of course the Democrats are desperate to keep control of the senate while the Republicans are desperate to flip it.

And Georgia is crucial. It’s also incredibly evocative because in early 2021, Democrats Raphael Warnock and John Ossoff both won their run-offs to capture seats and become first-time senators and in the process hand control of the senate to the Democrats.

Ossoff unseated Republican senator David Perdue in that race, who tried to make a comeback in these midterms by challenging current state governor Brian Kemp in the GOP gubernatorial primary, but lost despite (because of??) being endorsed by Donald Trump.

And when Warnock also unseated a Republican to win his run-off, the pastor became the first every Black US Senator from Georgia. Now, less than two years into his term, he’s being challenged for his seat by a rarity, a Black man running as a Republican who counts white conservatives as his base – and has no experience in politics, one Herschel Walker.

Prior to the latest scandal for Walker, Warnock was slightly ahead in the polls.

 

[Webster]

(The Guardian) Pennsylvania’s open race to succeed retiring Republican US Senator Pat Toomey, meanwhile, is one of those on a razor’s edge.

Axios calls the battle between Democrat John Fetterman and Republican Mehmet Oz, who’s backed by Donald Trump, “the majority-making race” in the midterm elections next month.

Various outlets have Oz gaining ground against Fetterman in their nasty, personal campaign, who was placed six points ahead of his rival in a recent USA Today report – but also showing the Republican for governor of Pennsylvania, Doug Mastriano, tumbling badly in his race against Democratic candidate and state attorney general Josh Shapiro.

Axios notes in its morning news letter that Pennsylvania is the tightest Senate race in the country, and adds that: “Besides Pennsylvania, the other tossup Senate races are in Nevada, Georgia and Wisconsin.”

Meanwhile, yet another report sharply criticizes medic Oz’s track record in experimenting on animals.

Jezebel reports that: A review of 75 studies published by Mehmet Oz between 1989 and 2010 reveals the Republican Senate candidate’s research killed over 300 dogs and inflicted significant suffering on them and the other animals used in experiments.

Oz, the New Jersey resident who’s currently running for U.S. Senate from Pennsylvania, was a “principal investigator” at the Columbia University Institute of Comparative Medicine labs for years and assumed “full scientific, administrative, and fiscal responsibility for the conduct” of his studies.

Over the course of 75 studies published in academic journals reviewed by Jezebel, Oz’s team conducted experiments on at least 1,027 live animal subjects that included dogs, pigs, calves, rabbits, and small rodents. Thirty-four of these experiments resulted in the deaths of at least 329 dogs, while two of his experiments killed 31 pigs, and 38 experiments killed 661 rabbits and rodents.

 

[Webster]

(The Guardian) A new NYT/Siena poll looks glum for Democrats. After their fortunes appeared to reverse this summer, Republicans have regained their edge with voters just weeks left before election day.


According to the poll, Republicans hold a 49-45 lead in the race for Congress, with the economy being a top priority for voters in 2022. The shift was driven by women who identified as independent voters.

“In September, they favored Democrats by 14 points. Now, independent women backed Republicans by 18 points.”

The poll found the share of voters who ranked the economy or inflation as a top issue climbed nearly 10%. Republicans have long held an advantage on the economy, a trend that is even more pronounced with inflation at a 40-year-high and Democrats in control in Washington. A far smaller share of voters prioritize issues that favor Democrats, such as abortion and guns.

Moreover, voters are extremely dissatisfied with the president, a factor that further hurts Democrats.

 

[Webster]

(The Guardian) Today the Guardian launched a four-part series on Latino voters – a fast-growing, incredibly diverse voting bloc with the collective power to sway the 2022 midterm elections.

Though Latino voters have historically favored Democrats – and recent polling suggests that they still do – the party’s grip on these voters is slipping as economic forces provide an opening for Republicans. This year, due in part to population growth and redistricting, Latino voters make up a significant slice of the electorate in several of the most competitive House and Senate races. The stakes for both parties could not be higher.

In the first installment, (the Guardian's Ramon Antonio Vargas) provides a very broad overview of the well-financed fight to engage and mobilize Latino voters this cycle. But look out for the rest of the series, with reports from Florida, Texas and the mountain west.

Democrats and Republicans fight to make inroads with Latinos ahead of midterms

Hispanic voters could tip the scales next month in a number of battleground states

www.theguardian.com

 

[Nebulous's iconNebulous]

Traditionally Latinos tend to vote democrat because the laws republicans are rooting for usually work against them and their families.

 

[Webster]

(The Guardian) In case you missed it: former president Barack Obama chimed in on Democrats’ messaging ahead of midterms. More from the Guardian’s Sam Levine: Barack Obama acknowledged Democrats can be “a buzzkill” with their abstract campaign messaging and could better connect with voters by emphasizing what constituents feel in their day to day lives.

During an interview on Pod Save America, released Friday, Obama acknowledged that he “used to get into trouble” when he appeared too professorial, including by standing behind a lectern and talking about policy in theoretical ways that didn’t directly connect with voters.

“That’s not how people think about these issues,” Obama said, less than a month before his party tries to hang on to control of both congressional chambers during the 8 November midterms. “They think about them in terms of, you know, the life I’m leading day to day. How does politics … how is it even relevant to the things that I care most deeply about?

“My family, my kids, work that gives me satisfaction, having fun, not being a buzzkill, right?”

Obama admits Democrats can be a ‘buzzkill’ and urges better messaging

President says he ‘used to get into trouble’ by being too policy-focused as Democrats brace for losing House majority

www.theguardian.com

 

[Webster]

(The Guardian) Could Kathy Hochul be in trouble in New York
New York is not a state that too many Democrats have been worried about in recent years. But a couple of recent polls have shown governor Kathy Hochul with only a relatively narrow lead over her Republican opponent.

Politico has the details: Two polls Tuesday showed the race for New York governor getting closer than perhaps many had initially expected in the deep-blue state.

A Siena College Research Institute poll early Tuesday found Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul held an 11-percentage-point edge over Republican Rep. Lee Zeldin in a state where Democrats have won every statewide race over the past two decades. That was down from a 17-point lead a month ago.

Then an even closer poll came out in the afternoon: A Quinnipiac University survey found Hochul with a razor-thin 50 percent to 46 percent lead over Zeldin — putting Zeldin within striking distance of a potentially major upset.

“In the blue state of New York, the race for governor is competitive,” Quinnipiac polling analyst Mary Snow said in a statement.

 

[Webster]

(The Guardian) Trump isn’t alone in presenting a danger to democracy. As Adam Gabbatt reports, Doug Mastriano is copying many of the former president’s tactics in his campaign for governor of Pennsylvania, from his perpetual lying to his belief in conspiracy theories about the 2020 election: As Pennsylvanians prepare to vote for their next governor, it is no exaggeration to say the future of American democracy is at stake.

Doug Mastriano, a retired army colonel who has enthusiastically indulged Donald Trump’s fantasy that the 2020 presidential election was stolen, is the Republican candidate. If he wins, he plans to deregister every single one of Pennsylvania’s 8.7 million voters. In future elections, Mastriano would choose who certifies – or doesn’t – the state’s election results.

With Pennsylvania one of the few swing states in presidential elections, Mastriano could effectively have the power to decide the next president. But in a midterm election season defined by Republicans who seem to oppose democracy, there is some evidence that Mastriano, a retired army colonel, could be too fringe even for the Republican party.

Mastriano is, by most measures, an extremist.
-Read more: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news...riano-pennsylvania-republicans-trump-governor

 

[Webster]

(The Guardian) Liz Cheney endorses Michigan Democrat
Despite her fairly hard core conservative credentials, anti-Trump Republican congresswoman Liz Cheney has now endorsed a Democrat in the upcoming midterm elections.

Having used her position on the January 6 committee to bludgeon Donald Trump for his role in the insurrection and for seeking to overturn the 2020 election result, Cheney clearly feels her split with her own party is nearly complete.

Crossing America’s political divide and supporting a Democrat will infuriate the Trumpist-dominated Republican party.

AP has the details: Republican Rep. Liz Cheney on Thursday endorsed and plans to campaign for Rep. Elissa Slotkin of Michigan, the first time that the critic of former President Donald Trump who lost her GOP primary has crossed party lines to formally support a Democrat.

Cheney, of Wyoming, announced her support for the two-term House member from Holly, Michigan, in a statement by the Slotkin campaign that notes she plans to headline a campaign event with Slotkin in the Lansing-area district next Tuesday.

Slotkin is competing against Republican state Sen. Tom Barrett in Michigan’s 7th Congressional District. Their race is considered a toss-up by both sides and one of the Republicans’ chief targets in their campaign to win the House majority on Nov. 8.

And this is likely the crucial detail. -- Both [Cheney and Slotkin] have been vocal critics of House Republicans who have sought to downplay the siege of the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021.

 

[Webster]

(The Guardian) Democrat woes deepen in New York
Much has already been made of the unusually tight race in New York state for the governor’s mansion, where Kathy Hochul only has a relatively narrow lead over her Republican challenger.

Now, adding to those New York woes, is evidence that other races are starting to look troublesome for Democrats, including the House Democratic campaigns chief Sean Patrick Maloney in the Hudson Valley. Once thought safe, the race there has tightened considerably. Politico has more: Republicans first targeted House Democratic campaigns chief Sean Patrick Maloney’s blue district here in the Hudson Valley as an act of trolling their arch-nemesis. Now they’re taking their prospects seriously.

And so is Maloney. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee chair and his allies are answering the GOP’s escalation with millions of dollars from outside groups, while Maloney steps up his already grueling campaign schedule at home. Swooping in to rescue their own campaigns chief is the last place Democrats wanted to be in the final days of the midterms. His struggles have led some in the party to rethink their tendency to elect swing-seat DCCC leaders, but for the moment Maloney’s just looking to hang on.

But also a note of optimism. -- “This is nothing new for me,” [Maloney] claimed of the GOP onslaught after a Wednesday town hall to promote his work on lowering prescription drug prices. Indeed, in 2016 he won reelection even as most voters in his then-district picked Donald Trump for president.

 

[MrDawn]

Now a days I keep an open mind and remember not to hold my breath on all of the lip service when it comes to the candidates running for election.

 

[Webster]

Yeah, but sometimes those promises do come true.

 

[Webster]

 

[Webster]

(The Guardian) With Americans soon heading to the polls in the midterm elections, it’s worth noting that the majority of states have passed new laws in the wake of the 2020 election that Ese Olumhense of Reveal from the Center for Investigative Reporting finds amounts to one of the biggest voter suppression threats in recent memory: Since the 2020 election, lawmakers in all but eight states have attempted to pass laws that would create new election investigation agencies, establish criminal penalties for election offenses or further empower law enforcement officials to investigate such crimes, according to an analysis by Reveal from the Center for Investigative Reporting.

The proliferation of election crime legislation represents the most intense voter suppression threat in decades and comes in direct response to former president Donald Trump’s lie that the 2020 election was fraudulent.

In the last two years, at least 130 bills have been introduced across 42 states that would increase the involvement of law enforcement in the voting process, the analysis shows. Of those bills, 28 have passed in 20 states.

Some of these efforts have grabbed attention individually, like Georgia’s law making it a crime to hand out food or drinks – even water – to voters waiting in line or Florida’s creation of an entirely new law enforcement agency to police elections, the office of election crimes and security, which has already been criticized for bringing flimsy prosecutions.

Reveal’s first-of-its-kind analysis shows those bills are part of a larger movement, mostly led by Republican state lawmakers and fueled by conspiracy theories. While some of those efforts have so far failed, they show no sign of relenting, as the myth of voter fraud has become a central GOP platform.